Predicting Divorce
By Dr Scott M Stanley & Dr Howard J Markman
Research Studies
The following information is taken from: Stanley (in press)
A number of studies specifically on PREP® and it's variations have shown very encouraging
results. Behrens and Halford (1994) found that the communication skills
of those coming from divorced homes could be brought up to the level of
those not having this risk factor (parental divorce). Blumberg (1991)
compared PREP with Engaged Encounter, finding at post assessment that
PREP couples communicated more positively and less negatively as judged
by trained coders.
In the United States, the longest term evaluation of the skills-based,
premarital training ever conducted has been a study comparing PREP to
matched control couples (Markman, Floyd, Stanley, & Storaasli, 1988;
Markman et al., 1993; Stanley et al., 1995). PREP couples have been
shown to have about half the likelihood of breaking up or divorcing,
have demonstrated greater relationship satisfaction, and have shown
lower problem intensity than the control couples, up to five years
following training.
For years following training, PREP couples have shown better
communication than controls, as assessed on such dimensions as
communication skills usage, positive affect, problem-solving skill, and
support/validation. PREP couples have also shown less withdrawal, less
denial, less dominance, less negative affect, and less overall negative
communication than controls. Lastly, PREP couples reported
significantly fewer instances of physical violence.
In Germany, a version of PREP® has been
in use by the Catholic Church, where PREP couples (compared to a mixed
control group, with about half of the couples choosing other premarital
programs offered by the Church and about half receiving no premarital
program) have shown significant gains in communication and conflict
management skills from pre to post-test, and have maintained these gains
at the 1 and 3-year follow-ups compared to their pre-test scores and to
controls. Moreover, PREP couples were significantly more satisfied at
the 3 year follow-up and more stable as compared to controls (Thurmaier
et al.. 1993). Perhaps most importantly, the latest data show that the
PREP couples have a lower divorce rate (1.6% vs. 12.5%) than the control
couples (Hahlweg et al., 1996).
A recent study on another variation of PREP in the Netherlands did not
show the same kinds of promising results as other PREP studies have (Van
Widenfelt, Hosman, Schaap, & van der Staak, 1996). However,
interpretation of results from this study is problematic for various
reasons. First, PREP couples had been together an average of three
years longer than controls at the beginning of the study, making group
comparisons difficult. Second, since the PREP couples averaged nine
years together prior to intervention, inferences to premarital
"prevention" seem limited. Third, control couples were significantly
more likely to drop out of this longitudinal study, which can produce a
control group that is increasingly select (biased) for couples doing
relatively well (Van Widenfelt et al., 1996) at 5 year follow-up.
Such methodological problems are very difficult to overcome in
longitudinal, intervention outcome research, and studies on
PREP® are affected by such complicated
methodological concerns in varying degrees. At the University of Denver
we are currently beginning a large scale outcome study of premarital
training with the support of the National Institute of Mental Health.
This new study will address some of the design concerns raised by other
outcome studies on premarital training.
Methodological problems in long term studies make it increasingly
difficult to detect differences between groups many years later. It is
important to note that the beneficial effects of a program like PREP appear
to be clear as long as 4 or 5 years after the training. Beyond that, the
effects probably weaken over time, and therefore it is important for
couples who benefit from such material to periodically review it. Taken as
a whole, we are quite encouraged by the data from a variety of studies
suggesting that couples can learn skills, attitudes, and strategies that
can make a real difference.